Empire or revolution. In the early Naughties, Iraq had just been liberated and occupied, debates in international relations were dominated by contemplations about what already was or would soon become the American Empire. At long last, the colonnades of mighty columns that hold the architraves, friezes, and pediments of official buildings in D.C. would not just symbolize the perpetuation of a cultural heritage that roots in the Greek cradle of Western culture. They would from now on reflect that Washington had become Rome 2.0. At the same time, geeks and techno-optimists were hailing the endless possibilities of information technology, the Internet, and the changes it would bring to the world and its societies. There was something mutually exclusive about theses two discourses. How would an alleged empire respond to something that allegedly had the capacity to turn the word upside down? Ignore it? Crush it? Embrace and extend it? Those were the questions I tried to address some ten years ago.
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431 million adults, $388 bn, marijuana, cocaine, heroin – cybercrime adds up to just an EFSF per year according to the folks at Symantec:
For the first time a Norton study calculates the cost of global cybercrime: $114 billion annually. Based on the value victims surveyed placed on time lost due to their cybercrime experiences, an additional $274 billion was lost. With 431 million adult victims globally in the past year and at an annual price of $388 billion globally based on financial losses and time lost, cybercrime costs the world significantly more than the global black market in marijuana, cocaine and heroin combined ($288 billion).
The research methodology:
Findings are extrapolations based upon results from a survey conducted in 24 countries among adults 18-64. The financial cost of cybercrime in the last year ($114bn) is calculated as follows: Victims over past 12 months (per country) x average financial cost of cybercrime (per country in US currency).
Between February 6, 2011 and March 14, 2011, StrategyOne conducted interviews with 19,636 people and included 12,704 adults, aged 18 and over 4,553 children aged 8-17 years and 2,379 grade 1-11 teachers from 24 countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States, Belgium, Denmark, Holland, Hong Kong, Mexico, South Africa, Singapore, Poland, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates).
20,000 interviews – interviews, not surveys – sounds impressive. With an interview lasting some 15 minutes, that’s 300,000 minutes or 5000 hrs or 625 days with an 8hrs day. You’d need a team of some 15 persons making telephone interviews for two months. Doable, just a few hundred thousand bucks going from Symantec to StrategyOne. But does such firepower help to dig out the truth™?
StrategyOne – Evidence-based communications:
As the strategic research partner of Edelman, the world’s leading independent PR firm, our heritage is in communications research. We understand that useful research informs strategy that engages, persuades, and moves products, minds, and media alike.
As to the methodology of the report, which is by the way not available as a PDF:
- A list of questions asked is not attached.
- Definition of cybercrime I: Cybercrime is, among others, defined as: “Computer viruses or Malware appeared on my computer”. (Chapter 7) So a malware attachment in your inbox qualifies as a single incident of cybercrime. No indication about the percentage of such cybercrime incidents vs., say, credit card fraud.
- Definition of cybercrime II: Which kind of incidents have been reported as “another type of cybercrime on my computer”? What’s the percentage of this category?
- Calculation of costs I: No indication whether different price bases are used e.g. for the U.S. and countries with substantial lower price indices, i.e. India, China.
- Calculation of costs II: How are non-monetary incidents such as “malware or virus appeared on my computer”, “responding to a smishing message”, “approached by a sexual predator”, “Online Harassment” etc. are turned into monetary damages?
Can being exposed to such reports be subsumed under online harassment? We won’t have reliable, sound, unbiased figures on cybercrime and the costs associated with it until a major research endeavour with serious funding spanning institutes in different countries is set up.